World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates

UNITED STATES–The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) estimated 2020–21 outlook in rural commodities hold for the most part with some grains and livestock at an slight increase as of March 9, 2021.

Wheat

The supply and demand outlook for 2020–21 U.S. wheat is mostly unchanged this month but there are offsetting by-class changes to exports and imports. White wheat exports are raised on continued strong sales and shipments to China and South Korea. Conversely, Hard Red Winter exports are lowered as commitments to several Western Hemisphere markets are below a year ago. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $5 per bushel.

The 2020–21 global wheat outlook is for larger supplies, increased consumption, higher exports, and reduced stocks this month. Supplies are raised 3.5 million tons to 1,077.1 million. Global production is increased to a record 776.8 million tons, mainly on higher Australia production on the latest ABARES estimate. Australia’s production is raised to a record 33.0 million tons, surpassing the previous 2016–17 record of 31.8 million. World 2020–21 consumption is increased 6.6 million tons to 775.9 million, mostly on higher feed and residual use for China. Auction sales of China’s old-crop wheat stocks were large in January and February as its domestic corn prices remain at a premium to wheat. This is expected to further heighten China’s 2020–21 wheat feed and residual use, raised 5.0 million tons to a record 35.0 million.

Projected 2020–21 global trade is raised 2.9 million tons to a record 197.7 million, mostly on higher exports by Australia and Canada. Australia’s exports are raised on greater exportable supplies while Canada’s exports are increased on a continued strong pace. The largest import changes this month are for China and Pakistan, where imports are raised to 10.5 million and 3.4 million tons, respectively, on a continued robust pace.

Projected 2020–21 imports for both countries are well above their 2019/20 imports. Projected 2020–21 world ending stocks are lowered 3.0 million tons to 301.2 million with most of the reduction due to increased consumption for China. However, global stocks are still slightly higher than 2019/20 with China and India holding 50 and 9 percent of the total, respectively.

Coarse Grains

This month’s 2020–21 U.S. corn supply and use outlook is unchanged from last month. The projected season-average farm price is unchanged at $4.30 per bushel. Global coarse grain production for 2020–21 is forecast 5.9 million tons higher to 1,444.8 million. The 2020–21 foreign coarse grain outlook is for larger production, increased trade, and greater ending stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is forecast higher with increases for India, South Africa, and Bangladesh that are partly offset by a decline for Mexico. India corn production is higher with increases to both area and yield. South Africa corn production is raised reflecting more favorable yield prospects. World barley production is higher with an increase for Australia.

Corn exports are raised for India, Vietnam, and South Africa. Imports are increased for Vietnam, Bangladesh, and the Philippines. Barley exports are raised for Australia, with higher imports for Saudi Arabia and Algeria. Foreign corn ending stocks for 2020–21 are higher, mostly reflecting increases for India, Vietnam, and Paraguay that are partly offset by reductions for Argentina and Mexico. Global corn ending stocks, at 287.7 million tons, are up 1.1 million from last month.

Livestock, Poultry, And Dairy

The 2021 forecast for total red meat and poultry production is lowered from last month as lower expected pork, broiler, and turkey production more than offsets slightly higher beef production. Pork production is lowered on a slower pace of hog slaughter although higher expected carcass weights in the first half of the year temper the decline. Broiler production is lowered for the first quarter on to-date slaughter data; production in the outlying quarters is unchanged from last month. First-half beef production is raised from last month as lower expected fed cattle slaughter in the first quarter is more than offset by higher first-half non-fed cattle slaughter. Second-half production is adjusted to reflect a more rapid pace of first-quarter feedlot placements.

The 2021 beef import forecast is reduced on increased competition for relatively tight supplies of beef from Oceania. The beef export forecast is unchanged from last month. The annual forecasts for pork imports and exports are unchanged from last month. The broiler export forecast is reduced from last month on expected weakness in demand, and the turkey forecast is lowered on the pace of exports in the first quarter.

Fed cattle prices are unchanged from last month. Hog price forecasts are raised from last month on current prices and expectations of firm demand. Broiler and turkey price forecasts are raised on current prices and tighter expected supplies.