World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates

WHEAT: The outlook for 2022-23 U.S. wheat this month is for lower supplies, domestic use, exports, and stocks. Supplies are reduced on lower 2022-23 production based on the NASS Small Grains Summary that indicated reductions in both harvested area and yield. This lowered production by 133 million bushels to 1,650 million, leaving production only minimally higher than last year. Partially offsetting the production decline are higher projected imports, raised 10 million bushels to 120 million, all for Hard Red Spring. Annual feed and residual use is lowered 30 million bushels to 50 million, based on first quarter disappearance, as indicated in the NASS Grain Stocks report. This is the lowest first quarter total disappearance since 1983-84.

Wheat exports are lowered 50 million bushels to 775 million on reduced supplies, slow pace of export sales, and continued uncompetitive U.S. export prices. This would be the lowest U.S. wheat exports since 1971-72. Projected ending stocks are lowered 34 million bushels to 576 million, which would be the lowest since 2007-08. The season-average farm price is raised $0.20 per bushel to $9.20 on reported NASS prices to date and expectations for futures and cash prices for the remainder of 2022-23.

The global wheat outlook for 2022-23 wheat is for reduced supplies, consumption, trade, and stocks. Supplies are lowered 1.9 million tons to 1,057.7 million on reduced production for the United States and Argentina more than offsetting higher EU production although world production remains at a record. Argentina is lowered 1.5 million tons to 17.5 million with reductions in both area harvested and yield on continued widespread dry conditions. EU production is raised 2.7 million tons to 134.8 million, mainly on higher government estimates from Poland and Germany.

Global consumption is reduced 0.9 million tons to 790.2 million on lower food, seed, and industrial use more than offsetting higher feed and residual use. World trade is lowered 0.6 million tons to 208.3 million on reduced exports by the United States and Argentina more than offsetting higher EU exports. Projected 2022-23 ending stocks are lowered 1.0 million tons to 267.5 million mostly on a reduction for the United States.

COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2022-23 U.S. corn outlook is for reduced supplies, greater feed and residual use, lower exports and corn used for ethanol, and smaller ending stocks. Corn production is forecast at 13.895 billion bushels, down 49 million on a reduction in yield to 171.9 bushels per acre. Corn supplies are forecast at 15.322 billion bushels, a decline of 172 million bushels from last month, as lower production and beginning stocks are partially offset by higher imports.

Exports are lowered 125 million bushels reflecting smaller supplies and slow early-season demand. Projected feed and residual use is raised 50 million bushels based on indicated disappearance during 2021-22. Corn used for ethanol is lowered 50 million bushels. With supply falling more than use, corn ending stocks for 2022-23 are cut 47 million bushels. The season-average corn price received by producers is raised 5 cents to $6.80 per bushel.

Global coarse grain production for 2022-23 is forecast down 3.8 million tons to 1,459.8 million. The 2022-23 foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production, greater trade, and smaller stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is reduced as declines for the EU and Serbia are partly offset by an increase for India. EU corn production is lowered reflecting reductions for Romania, Bulgaria, Hungary, and France. India corn production is raised based on the latest government statistics.

Corn exports are raised for Ukraine and India but lowered for the United States and Serbia. For 2021-22, corn exports for Argentina are lowered for the local marketing year beginning March 2022 based on shipments through the month of September. For 2022-23, corn imports are lowered for Iran, Japan, and Vietnam, but raised for the EU and United States. Foreign corn ending stocks are down, mostly reflecting reductions for China and Ukraine. Global corn stocks, at 301.2 million tons, are down 3.3 million.

LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, and DAIRY: The forecast for 2022 red meat and poultry production is raised from last month, as higher beef, pork, and broiler forecasts are partly offset by lower turkey. Beef is raised for the second half with higher expected slaughter as well as higher carcass weights for the period. Pork for the third quarter is raised on a higher-than-expected slaughter; no change is made to the fourth-quarter forecast.

Broiler production is raised on current slaughter data and higher eggs set and chicks placed. Turkey is lowered, with an increase in the third quarter more than offset by a reduction in the fourth quarter due in part to recent Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) discoveries. Egg production is lowered from last month on recent hatchery data and recent HPAI discoveries.

For 2023, the red meat and poultry production forecast is raised on higher beef and broiler production. Beef is raised on higher expected placements in late 2022 which will be marketed in the first half of 2023. Broiler production is raised on expected growth in eggs set and chicks placed during the year. Pork is lowered on expected farrowing and modest growth in pigs per litter. Turkey is lowered slightly for the first two quarters. Egg production is raised, with a raised second half forecast more than offsetting a reduction in first half production.

Beef imports for 2022 are lowered on slower third quarter exports. Exports are raised on the current pace of trade in the third quarter but the forecast for the fourth quarter is unchanged. Beef imports for 2023 are raised. 2023 exports are forecast higher on expectations of firm demand in a number of Asian markets. Pork imports and exports are lowered for 2022 on recent data.

For 2023, pork exports are lowered on tighter domestic supplies and weaker demand in several markets. Broiler export forecasts for 2022 and 2023 are unchanged. Turkey exports are lowered for 2022 but raised for 2023.

Cattle price forecasts for 2022 are raised on current strength in packer demand, but forecasts for 2023 are unchanged. The 2022 hog price forecast is lowered on recent prices, and 2023 prices are also lowered on weaker expected demand and competition from increased broiler supplies.

Broiler price forecasts for 2022 and 2023 are lowered on higher forecast production. Turkey price forecasts for both 2022 and 2023 are raised with lowered production forecasts. Egg price forecasts for 2022 and 2023 are raised on recent prices and expectations of continued firm demand.

The milk production forecasts for 2022 and 2023 are raised from last month. The cow inventory is raised reflecting a more rapid pace of expansion in late 2022 and the first half of 2023. Output-per-cow is raised for the remainder of 2022 and into the first part of 2023.

Fat and skim-solids basis imports for 2022 are raised, largely driven by recent trade data and higher expected imports of cheese and a number of other products; the skim imports increase also reflects strong milk protein concentrate and casein imports.

Forecasts for 2023 imports for both bases are also raised largely on stronger imports of butter. Exports for both years are raised on expectations of stronger whey, lactose, and butterfat product exports. However, export growth in skim milk powder is expected to be slower in 2022.

For 2022, forecasts for butter and cheese prices are raised on current price strength, but nonfat dry milk (NDM) and whey prices are lowered. Both Class III and Class IV prices are raised, reflecting the higher butter and cheese prices respectively.

For 2023, price forecasts for butter and cheese are raised while the NDM prices is lower. The Class III price is raised on higher cheese and Class IV price forecast is raised as the higher butter price more than offsets the lower expected NDM price. The 2022 all milk price forecast is raised to $25.60 per cwt and the 2023 all milk price is raised to $22.90 per cwt.

OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2022-23 is forecasted at 126.9 million tons, down 1.6 million from last month with lower soybean, peanut, and cottonseed production partly offset with higher forecasts for canola and sunflower seed. Soybean production is forecast at 4.3 billion bushels, down 65 million on lower yields. Harvested area is unchanged at 86.6 million acres.

The soybean yield is projected at 49.8 bushels per acre, down 0.7 bushels from the September forecast. With lower production partly offset by higher beginning stocks, supplies are reduced 31 million bushels. Soybean exports are reduced 40 million bushels to 2.05 billion with increased competition from South America. With lower exports partly offset by increased crush, ending stocks are unchanged from last month at 200 million bushels.

The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2022-23 is forecast at $14.00 per bushel, down 35 cents. Soybean meal and oil prices are unchanged at $390.00 per short ton and 69 cents per pound respectively.

The foreign 2022-23oilseed outlook includes higher production, crush, trade, and ending stocks. Foreign production is increased 3.3 million tons to 519.7 million mainly on higher soybean and rapeseed production. Soybean production for Brazil is increased 3.0 million tons to 152.0 million, reflecting higher area reported by Brazil’s National Supply Company (CONAB). Rapeseed production for the EU is increased 1.0 million tons to 19.2 million on higher production for France, Germany, and Poland. Partly offsetting is a 0.5-million-ton reduction to 19.5 million for Canada’s canola crop on a lower yield.

Global 2022-23 soybean exports are raised 1.0 million tons to 168.8 million with higher exports for Argentina and Brazil that are partly offset by lower exports for the United States and Paraguay. China’s soybean imports are raised 1.0 million tons to 98.0 million with higher global supplies. Conversely, China’s canola imports are lowered 0.5 million tons to 2.3 million reflecting lower Canadian supplies. Global soybean ending stocks are raised 1.6 million tons to 100.5 million, mainly on higher stocks for Brazil.

RICE: The outlook for 2022-23 U.S. rice this month is for slightly increased supplies, unchanged domestic use, lower exports, and larger ending stocks. Supplies are raised slightly as the NASS October 12 Crop Production report increased the all-rice yield 13 pounds to 7,599 pounds per acre.

The 2022-23 export forecast is lowered 2.0 million cwt to 75.0 million, all long-grain rice, as relatively higher U.S. prices contribute to a slow pace of sales this marketing year. If realized, this would be the lowest all rice export total since 1991/92. Ending stocks are raised 2.3 million cwt to 33.2 million, which would still be down more than 16 percent from the prior year. The season-average farm price for all rice is unchanged at $19.40 per cwt.

The 2022-23 global rice outlook this month is for lower supplies, consumption, trade, and ending stocks. Supplies are lowered by 3.6 million tons to 689.3 million for 2022-23, primarily on decreases in production for India and Pakistan. India’s production is lowered 2.5 million tons to 124.0 million based on the government’s first estimate of the 2022-23 kharif crop. Production in Pakistan is lowered 1.0 million tons to 7.4 million as widespread and prolonged flooding, particularly in the Sindh province, reduced harvested area and yields.

Global exports are lowered 0.4 million tons to 53.2 million as decreases for India and Pakistan are partly offset by increases for Vietnam, Thailand, and Brazil. Global 2022-23 ending stocks are lowered 2.4 million tons to 171.2 million, primarily due to a decrease for India, and would be the lowest level since 2017/18.

SUGAR: U.S. 2022-23 sugar ending stocks are increased by 161,933 short tons, raw value (STRV) on increases in imports, beginning stocks, and production. On September 15, the USDA established the fiscal year (FY) 2022-23 refined sugar TRQ at 220,000 metric tons, raw value (MTRV), and on September 19 USTR allocated the in-quota quantity of the TRQ among supplying countries. USDA’s action results in an increase in 2022-23 TRQ imports of 217,206 STRV. Added to this amount are imports amounting to 77,437 STRV from the 2021-22 raw sugar TRQ that did not enter in September as forecast but are forecast to enter in 2022-23 after USDA extended the period for entry until December 31, 2022.

Arrayed against these increases is an increase in the raw sugar TRQ shortfall by 155,424 STRV to 254,632, due mostly to the decision of officials in the Philippines to allocate all production to domestic consumption and reduce exports to zero. Also, sugar imported under calendar year FTA TRQs are reduced by 10,201 STRV mostly because that sugar entered earlier in 2021-22than originally forecast.

The net effect of beginning stocks on the 2022-23 supply and use balance results from stronger-than-expected Louisiana cane sugar production in September and from increases in 2021-22 high-tier tariff imports and imports from Mexico.

Based on NASS sugar crop yield changes in the October Crop Production report, 2022-23 cane sugar production in Louisiana is increased and more than offsets a small reduction in beet sugar production. Texas cane sugar is reduced on processor reporting. The 2022-23 ending stocks-to-use ratio is projected at 14.8 percent, up from 13.5 last month.

Mexico sugar production for 2022-23 is reduced 100,000 MT to 5.900 million. Area harvested is expected to remain above 800,000 hectares for a second consecutive year as good domestic returns in 2021-22 have incentivized growers to maintain area planted to sugarcane.

Nonetheless, yields are expected to be lower than last year due to lower rainfall in certain growing areas, higher prices for fertilizers and other inputs, and some field labor shortages.

Lower production is matched by lower exports on a one-to-one basis. Total exports forecast at 1.403 million MT only slightly exceed exports of 1.385 million projected for shipment under export license to the United States.

COTTON: The 2022-23 U.S. cotton supply and demand estimates show slightly lower exports and higher ending stocks compared with last month. Production is virtually unchanged at 13.8 million bales, less than 1 percent lower than a month earlier. With world trade projected lower, the export forecast is 100,000 bales lower at 12.5 million bales, while ending stocks are 100,000 bales higher.

The 2022-23season-average price for upland cotton is forecast at 90.0 cents per pound, 6 cents lower than last month and slightly below the final 2021-22record-high price of 91.4 cents.

In the 2022-23 world balance sheet this month, consumption is 3.0 million bales lower and ending stocks are 3.1 million bales higher. China’s historical consumption estimates are revised back to 2019-20, with the largest change in 2021-22, which is revised down 2.0 million bales.

China’s projected 2022-23consumption is 1.0 million bales lower this month, as is India’s. Pakistan’s is 500,000 bales lower, and consumption is also lower for Turkey, Mexico, and Vietnam.

World trade is projected nearly 1 million bales lower than it was in September, with declines in imports by China, Pakistan, Mexico, Turkey, and Vietnam.

Exports are lower for Australia, Brazil, India, Benin, Cote d’Ivoire, Greece, and Mexico, as well as the United States. World production in 2022-23is projected nearly 400,000 bales lower than it was a month ago, largely reflecting lower crops in Pakistan and Benin.

Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and by the Chairman of the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Mark Jekanowski, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees. Approved by: Seth Meyer Secretary of Agriculture Designate