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WHEAT: The outlook for 2024-25 U.S. wheat this month is for slightly larger supplies and domestic use, unchanged exports, and marginally higher ending stocks. Supplies are raised on higher imports, increased 5 million bushels to 130 million, all on Hard Red Spring. Feed and residual use is unchanged at 120 million bushels but there are offsetting by-class changes based on the NASS Grain Stocks report. Seed use is increased 2 million bushels to 64 million, based on the NASS Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings report. Exports are unchanged at 850 million bushels but there are offsetting by-class changes. Projected 2024-25 ending stocks are raised 3 million bushels to 798 million, up 15 percent from last year. The season-average farm price is reduced $0.05 per bushel to $5.55 on NASS prices reported to date and expectations for futures and cash prices for the remainder of the marketing year.
The global wheat outlook for 2024-25 is for slightly larger supplies, lower consumption, reduced trade, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are raised 0.4 million tons to 1,060.7 million as higher production for Syria and Pakistan more than offsets a reduction for Uruguay. Global consumption is lowered 0.6 million tons to 801.9 million, primarily on reductions for Turkey partially offset by Ukraine. World trade is 1.7 million tons lower at 212.0 million on decreased exports for Russia and Ukraine. Russia's exports are forecast at 46.0 million tons, down 1.0 million from last month and well below last year's record of 55.5 million. Projected 2024-25 global ending stocks are raised 0.9 million tons to 258.8 million, primarily on increases for Russia, Brazil, Nigeria, and Ukraine more than offsetting reductions for Turkey, China, and Indonesia.
COARSE GRAINS: This month's 2024-25 U.S. corn outlook is for lower production, feed and residual use, exports, and ending stocks. Corn production is estimated at 14.9 billion bushels, down 276 million as a 3.8-bushel per acre cut in yield to 179.3 bushels is partially offset by a 0.2-million acre increase in harvested area. Total corn use is down 75 million bushels to 15.1 billion. Feed and residual use is reduced 50 million bushels to 5.8 billion, based on indicated disappearance during the September-November quarter as reflected by the Grain Stocks report. Exports are cut 25 million bushels to 2.5 billion reflecting lower supplies. With supply falling more than use, corn stocks are lowered 198 million bushels. The season-average corn price received by producers is raised 15 cents to $4.25 per bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2024-25 is forecast down 4.8 million tons to 1.494 billion. This month's foreign coarse grain outlook is for greater production, reduced trade, and higher ending stocks. Foreign corn production is forecast higher with increases for China, Ghana, and Russia. China corn production is raised to a record 294.9 million tons based on the latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics. Corn production is higher for Russia based on the latest information from Rosstat.
Major global coarse grain trade changes for 2024-25 include lower corn exports for the United States and Brazil. Corn imports are raised for Turkey but lowered for China, South Korea, and Japan. Foreign corn ending stocks are higher mostly reflecting an increase for China. Global corn stocks, at 293.3 million tons, are down 3.1 million.
RICE: The outlook for 2024-25 U.S. rice this month is for higher supplies, larger domestic use, unchanged exports, and smaller ending stocks. The NASS Crop Production Annual Summary estimated all rice production at 222.1 million cwt, up 2.3 million from the previous estimate with the largest increases for Texas and Missouri. The all-rice average yield is estimated at a record 7,748 pounds per acre, up 158 pounds from the prior estimate on a record long-grain yield. Domestic and residual use is increased 6.0 million cwt to 165.0 million, based on implied August through November use in today's Rice Stocks report. Projected ending stocks are lowered 3.2 million cwt to 43.5 million but are still 9 percent higher than the previous year.
Several changes were made to 2024-25 season-average farm price forecasts. The Other State medium- and short-grain price is raised $0.30 per cwt to $14.80, the long-grain price is lowered $0.20 per cwt to $14.30, and the all-rice price is unchanged at $15.60 per cwt.
The 2024-25 global outlook this month is for smaller supplies, consumption, trade, and ending stocks. Supplies are lowered 0.4 million tons to 712.4 million with most of the reduction the result of a lower China production estimate reported by the National Bureau of Statistics. World 2024-25 consumption is lowered 0.1 million tons to 530.2 million, mainly on lower forecasts for Bangladesh and China. Global trade is decreased 0.2 million tons to 57.9 million with reductions for Vietnam and Thailand. Projected world ending stocks are lowered 0.3 million tons to 182.1 million as reductions for China, Bangladesh, the United States, and Pakistan are partially offset by higher stocks for Vietnam, Nigeria, and Thailand.
OILSEEDS: U.S. oilseed production for 2024-25 is estimated at 128.5 million tons, down 2.7 million from the previous report. Lower soybean, peanut, rapeseed, and sunflower seed crops are partly offset by higher cottonseed.
Soybean production is estimated at 4.4 billion bushels, down 95 million led by decreases for Indiana, Kansas, South Dakota, Illinois, Iowa, and Ohio. Harvested area is estimated at 86.1 million acres, down 0.2 million. Yield is estimated at 50.7 bushels per acre, down 1.0 bushel. With lower production, slightly higher imports, and unchanged exports and crush, soybean ending stocks are projected at 380 million bushels, down 90 million. The soybean oil balance sheet adjustments include increased exports and lower soybean oil used for biofuel.
The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2024-25 is projected at $10.20 per bushel, unchanged from last month. The soybean meal price is increased $10 to $310 per short ton. The soybean oil price is forecast unchanged at 43 cents per pound.
Foreign 2024-25 oilseed production is lowered 0.3 million tons to 551.9 million, mainly on lower rapeseed production for India, Russia, and Uruguay, and lower soybean production for Russia and China. Partly offsetting is higher sunflower seed production for Russia and higher cottonseed production for China and Australia.
Global soybean exports are unchanged while global soybean crush is raised 1.9 million tons to 349.3 million. Crush is higher for Brazil on strong first-quarter soybean meal exports. The Iraq soybean balance sheet was also added to the database as soybean imports have risen over the past few years, which contributed to higher month-over-month global crush. Global soybean ending stocks are forecast at 128.4 million tons, down 3.5 million, mainly on lower stocks for the United States and Brazil.
SUGAR: U.S. sugar supply for 2024-25 is increased 242,943 short tons, raw value (STRV) to 14.494 million on increases in beet sugar production, imports, and beginning stocks. Beet sugar production is increased 178,030 STRV to 5.338 million mainly on an increase in beet sugar recovery from sliced sugar beets from 14.751 percent last month (10-year Olympic average) to 15.106 (statistically derived from recovery data for the August-November portion of the 2024-25 crop year sugar campaign).
High-tier tariff/Other imports are increased 40,387 STRV on imports recorded by Customs and Border Protection (CBP) through the first week of January above what was expected for the period last month. Projected 2024-25 high-tier raw sugar is at 166,966 STRV and high-tier refined is at 295,269 STRV.
Sugar from imported molasses is unchanged at 54,645 STRV. Beginning stocks are increased 24,054 STRV on changes made by refiners and processors in the revised 2023/24 Sweetener Market Data (SMD). Because there are no use changes, the change in supply flows through to ending stocks for a projected total of 1.939 million STRV, implying a stocks-to-use ratio of 15.44 percent.
For 2024-25 in Mexico, additional imports of 9,434 metric tons (MT), previously contracted, are expected to enter during the marketing year. With ending stocks unchanged, exports are increased by that same amount. Exports under license to the United States are unchanged at 531,409 MT. All the change is for exports not under license.
LIVESTOCK, POULTRY, AND DAIRY: Red meat and poultry production for 2024 is lowered from last month due to lower beef, pork, broiler, and turkey production in the fourth quarter. Changes in the estimates reflect November production data and preliminary estimates of slaughter numbers and weights for December. Egg production is lowered based on reductions of the layer flock because of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI)-related culling reported in December.
For 2025, the beef forecast is raised on an increase in steer and heifer slaughter due to higher placements expected during the fourth quarter of 2024, as well as higher dressed weights. USDA's Cattle report, which will be released January 31, will provide an indication of the number of cattle available for placement during 2025 as well as producer intentions for retaining heifers for addition to the breeding herd.
Pork production is raised reflecting pig crop and farrowings data for the second half of 2024 and the first half of 2025 published in the December Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report. Broiler production is lowered based on recent slaughter data indicating lower-than-previously expected weights. Turkey production is lowered for the first half of 2025 based on recent hatchery data and HPAI-related culling through early January. Egg production is also lowered due to reductions of the layer flock because of HPAI-related culling.
Beef import and export estimates for 2024 are raised on recent trade data. For 2025, beef imports are raised largely on continued strong shipments of beef from Oceania and South America. The 2025 beef export forecast is unchanged. Pork exports for 2024 are lowered based on recent trade data, but exports for 2025 are unchanged. Broiler exports in 2024 are lowered on recent trade data. Broiler exports for 2025 are also lowered on lower available supplies and strong price competition. Turkey exports are lowered for
2024 and 2025 on the recent trade data and lower domestic supplies.
Price estimates for 2024 are adjusted to reflect December data. For 2025, cattle prices are raised on recent prices and continued strong demand for cattle and beef. Hog prices are raised in 2025 supported by higher cattle and poultry prices. Broiler prices in 2025 are projected higher on lowered supplies and as stronger prices in late 2024 are expected to carry over into 2025. Turkey prices for 2025 are lowered with lower prices in late 2024 carrying over into 2025. Egg prices for 2025 are raised on recent HPAI outbreaks' impacts on recent prices during the first quarter, as well as the implications on the flock size for the remainder of 2025.
Milk production for 2024 is lowered from last month, with lower milk cow inventories and lower expected milk per cow based on the most recent Milk Production report. The 2025 production forecast is also lowered due to slower growth in output per cow. USDA's Cattle report will provide an indication of producer intentions for retaining dairy heifers for addition to the milking herd.
Fat basis imports for 2024 are higher based on recent trade data. Skim-solids basis imports for 2024 are unchanged. Fat basis imports for 2025 are raised on higher expected cheese and butter imports. Skim-solid basis imports for 2025 are lowered based on lower expected casein and milk protein concentrate. Exports on a fat basis are higher for both 2024 and 2025 on recent trade data and higher expected shipments of butter and cheese due to the U.S. price competitiveness of butter and cheese. Exports on a skim-solids basis are lowered for both 2024 and 2025 on recent trade data and less competitive U.S. nonfat dry milk (NDM) and whey.
For 2024, product and Class price estimates are adjusted to reflect reported prices. For 2025, prices for cheese, butter, NDM, and whey are all expected to be higher due to less milk production and supportive demand. The Class III price is raised, with higher cheese and whey prices. Class IV prices are also raised, due to higher butter and NDM price forecasts. The 2024 all milk price forecast is lowered to $22.60 per cwt and the 2025 all milk price is raised to $23.05 per cwt.
COTTON: For the 2024-25 U.S. cotton balance sheet, production and ending stocks are increased while exports are reduced. Domestic use and beginning stocks are unchanged. The U.S. all-cotton production is revised upward 159,000 bales to 14.4 million as the national all-cotton yield estimate is raised 44 pounds to 836 pounds per harvested acre, reflecting a larger crop and lower harvested area. Most of the reduction in harvested area occurred in the Southwest while yields in numerous Southeast, Delta, and Southwest States are expected to be higher. Projected exports are lowered 300,000 bales to 11.0 million.
Ending stocks are raised to 4.8 million bales for a stocks-to-use ratio of about 38 percent. The 2024-25 season average upland farm price is reduced to 65 cents per pound.
Global production, consumption, trade, and ending stocks are raised in the 2024-25 world cotton balance sheet while beginning stocks are unchanged. World production for 2024-25 is increased just over 2 million bales to 119.4 million, largely the result of a 1.8-million-bale increase for China's crop. Larger crops are also projected for Australia and the United States while production in Pakistan is reduced. World consumption is raised 100,000 bales as increases in Bangladesh and Vietnam more than offset a reduction for Turkey. Projected exports are raised 225,000 bales as increases for Brazil, Australia, and India exceed the reduction for the United States. Ending stocks are increased almost 1.9 million bales as increases in China, the United States, Australia, and India more than offset the reduction for Brazil.
Approved by the Secretary of Agriculture and by the Chairman of the World Agricultural Outlook Board, Mark Jekanowski, (202) 720-6030. This report was prepared by the Interagency Commodity Estimates Committees.
Approved by: Seth Meyer
Secretary of Agriculture Designate
